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What analysts think of Novo, Him & Hers after obesity pill withdrawal

NVO stock, HIMS stock, Novo Nordisk share price, Hims & Hers share price

Novo Nordisk’s Denmark-listed shares climbed more than 7%, while the stock gained close to 6% in US premarket trading after telehealth company Hims & Hers said it would stop offering its newly launched oral obesity pill copycat following regulatory scrutiny.

Hims & Hers, by contrast, fell nearly 20% in premarket trading.

Additionally, Novo Nordisk also launched a lawsuit against Hims & Hers, accusing it of mass marketing unapproved copies of the Danish drugmaker’s blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy and putting patient safety at risk.

Novo said on Monday that it is asking a US court to permanently block Hims from selling compounded versions of its drugs that allegedly infringe on its patents and to award damages.

The company argued that the safety, quality and efficacy of the copycat products have not been verified by regulators.

“Hims & Hers is mass marketing unapproved knock-off versions of Wegovy and Ozempic that evade the FDA’s gold standard review process,” said John F. Kuckelman, Novo Nordisk’s group general counsel.

“That’s dangerous and deceptive to patients, and undermines the scientific innovation and regulatory rigor in place to ensure these treatments are safe and effective.”

The lawsuit followed on the heels of Hims’ announcement on Saturday that it would stop offering its newly launched oral obesity pill copycat following regulatory scrutiny and legal threats from Novo.

The telehealth firm had planned to sell the pill for as little as $49 for the first month—roughly $100 cheaper than Novo’s approved Wegovy pill.

Hims introduced the oral semaglutide pill last week, based on the same active ingredient used in Novo’s Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic.

The launch quickly triggered pushback from the drugmaker and regulators.

On Saturday, Hims said it would withdraw the treatment after holding what it described as “constructive conversations with stakeholders.”

How have compounded drug versions hurt Novo

Under US rules, drug compounding is permitted when approved medicines are in short supply or when formulations must be customised for individual patients.

However, Novo’s GLP-1 drugs were removed from the Food and Drug Administration’s shortage list early last year, but even so, compounded semaglutide products have remained widely available.

Novo estimates that around 1.5 million Americans are currently using compounded versions of its drugs, underscoring the scale of the parallel market that has emerged around its blockbuster therapies.

Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying. Novo’s shares had already rebounded on Friday after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary signalled a crackdown on unauthorised compounded GLP-1 medications, which have challenged the company’s pricing power in the weight-loss and diabetes markets.

Analysts said the latest legal action could reshape the competitive landscape.

Stock price implication for NVO

Citi noted that the news gives Novo some relief from competition in the compounded pill segment and may strengthen its efforts to curb the impact of injectable copycat products.

However, the bank warned that the company still faces multiple headwinds related to pricing and competition in 2026 and beyond.

SEB analysts said Hims had “teased the bear,” arguing that the episode could lead to heightened scrutiny of the company’s entire compounding business rather than just its tablet offering.

“Overall, we see this as a positive for Novo,” SEB said, adding that other companies involved in compounding GLP-1 drugs could also be affected by tougher enforcement.

While the legal battle offers Novo a temporary boost, the company remains under pressure from structural shifts in the GLP-1 market.

In its recent earnings update, Novo warned that sales and profit growth would slow this year, citing lower US prices and the loss of exclusivity for Wegovy and Ozempic in markets including China, Brazil and Canada.

Novo has flagged “unprecedented price pressure,” a warning that triggered a 17% plunge in its stock after its full-year results.

Novo and Lilly last year struck a deal with the Trump administration to cut prices for their best-selling drugs, a move expected to boost volumes but weigh on overall revenue.

The agreement includes price reductions for Medicare and Medicaid in 2026 and discounted direct-to-consumer sales through the forthcoming TrumpRx.gov platform.

The company also faces mounting competition from Eli Lilly.

Novo’s market value peaked in mid-2024 but has since fallen sharply, shedding nearly two-thirds of its value.

The company is now banking on its Wegovy pill and next-generation injectable candidate CagriSema to regain market share in the US and revive investor confidence.

Stock price implication for HIMS

Citi analysts described Hims’ launch of a compounded Wegovy pill as “risky and aggressive,” warning that it exposed the company to significant legal risk.

The bank cut its price target for Hims & Hers to $16.5 from $30 while maintaining a sell rating, factoring in scenarios ranging from the loss of all weight-loss drug sales to more limited downside.

Bank of America also lowered its price target on Hims to $21 from $26 and reiterated an underperform rating.

The firm said the FDA’s warning did not distinguish between oral and injectable GLP-1 products, suggesting that regulatory action could extend beyond tablets to injectable semaglutide as well.

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